Why Betting Systems Do NOT Work at Casinos

Millions of people around the world firmly believe in the value of betting systems to show a profit in casino games. Not a week goes by that I don't hear someone (often someone with above average intelligence) espousing the benefits and flawlessness of some betting system, new or old. However, there is simply no betting system in the world that you can use to guarantee yourself a profit at casino games with a house advantage.

Crafty scam artists have made fortunes developing 'betting systems' that "cannot fail!" The reasons some betting systems appear to make sense is due to our own misconceived ideas about how random events in gambling create patterns from which we can predict future events. For example, there are a lot of people who (mistakenly) believe that if a roulette dealer spins 15 reds in a row, the next spin is more likely to be red. This is simply not the case. Previous events have absolutely no impact to what will happen in the future. A dealer could spin 14 million reds in a row, and the next spin still has a 50/50 chance of being red or black (ignoring the green zero). When gamblers assume that a run of results will continue, they call that 'betting the run'. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as 'a run' in the present tense. It only has use when describing the past. I know professional gamblers who are far smarter than me who still believe in lucky and unlucky runs - I have to continually make the point that while someone may have HAD an unlucky run, they are not IN an unlucky run, and there is no mathematical reason why any unlucky run should continue in the future.

It's only our minds playing tricks on us. Our lives and our gambling adventures are made up of thousands or millions of random events. When a bunch of lucky or unlucky events string together, which is bound to happen over millions of random events, our minds group those events into what we consider a 'lucky' or 'unlucky' run. And if we've just experienced a clumped group of lucky or unlucky events, many of us automatically think they will continue. But, of course, they won't. Or, at least, there is no mathematical reason to expect or assume that they will.

Incorrectly assuming that previous random events have some correlation to future random events is called 'Gambler's Fallacy'. Assuming that, for example, a long run of 'heads' when flipping coins has to be balanced out by a long run of 'tails' in the short term, is called 'Monte Carlo Fallacy'.

The most famous betting system in the world is 'The Martingale System'. It continually amazes me how many people believe this system works. The reason is, it actually would work, assuming certain, unrealistic factors were in place. The Martingale System was 'designed' for even money games like roulette or blackjack and it involves doubling each bet after a loss, and dropping back to your original betting unit after a win. This system would actually work, if:
- You had an infinite betting bank to bet with.
- There were no table limits on casino games.
Not one of us has an infinite amount of money to bet with, and because of this, if we were using Martingale, eventually we would hit such a bad run of losses, we would be betting all we had in the world to win back our original betting unit - betting $60,000 to win $10, for example. Additionally, casinos place artificial ceilings on even money games like roulette to stop people from trying to Martingale. If you were betting $10 on red or black and kept losing, you would reach the table limit before long. And then Martingale can't be used.

There are literally thousands of betting systems, all of which are flawed. The only betting system I couldn't find fault with is the betting system whereby you don't place any bets, therefore you can't lose! But where is the fun in that betting system, I ask you?

All you need to remember when you gamble is:

• No matter what 'pattern' of random events have occurred in the past, they have no correlation or effect whatsoever on what will happen in the future. You still have a 50% chance of flipping heads and a 50% chance of flipping tails.


• Casinos provide gambling games that are designed to return to them a small profit. Gambling at casino games is purely for entertainment, unless you have some kind of other edge, which I might discuss in future articles. Bet WITH your head, not OVER it!


• There are no 'betting systems' that can beat casino games. Otherwise we'd all be rich and the casinos would all be bankrupt.

I'll leave you with a famous line uttered by a Las Vegas casino owner. He was told this group of people had a sure-fire method of winning at baccarat. His response: "Tell them WELCOME!"

Ed note: Bet with your head, not over it at Aspinalls Online Casino.

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